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Tuesday, 07 January 2014

For the Bureau of Meteorology observed data confirms something.

What an interesting choice of words for dipassionate and ostensibly disinterested meteorologists.

The observed data confirms something?   I would have thought the observed data simply was the observed data. 

The BOM appears to have started with an hypothesis to confirm, so it's worth checking on their sums to make sure that confirmation-bias hasn't influenced the result.    Because of the potential conflict of interest between the political interests served by a warming finding and that political nexus to funding, then I think some heavy duty diligence on the formulas, weightings, averaging methods and assumptions in the BOM's number crunching is a useful investment.

Here's the first couple of lines of the Bureau of Meteorology's statement last Friday.

2013 confirmed as Australia's hottest year on record

Today's release of the Bureau of Meteorology Annual Climate Statement 2013 confirms Australia has recorded its hottest calendar year on record.

Our reader Samuel Gordon Stewart has run the temperature data and produced a result that confirms something quite different.

I don't know Samuel but he has presented his credentials at his website and his workings and spreadsheet are attached to be given the once-over by all and sundry.   Good on him!

Hi Michael,

 
As I'm sure you would be aware, the Weather Bureau released a rather alarming statement on Fridayabout 2013 being the hottest year on record.
 
I thought their numbers looked a little bit off and was also intrigued by their complete omission of the fact that some places did have some below-average temperatures through the year, so I decided to run the numbers myself. What I found was quite instructive.
 
Australia's average temperature was a fraction over 19 degrees, nearly a full four degrees lower than the Bureau's claim of 23 degrees.
 
The average temperature (21.8) which the Bureau used to determine that Australia was 1.2 degrees above average is also much higher than the long-term average obtained from the combined weather stations (roughly 18.4 degrees).
 
I also found quite a few cases of temperatures being below-average in various states and across the country in various months.
 
The full details of my findings, including more details about the discrepancy between the average temperatures from the weather stations and the Bureau's climate statements, plus the methodology used for my findings can be found on my blog at http://samuelgordonstewart.com/2014/01/bureau-overheat-figures-by-4-degrees-2013-was-not-australias-hottest-year-on-record and I've also attached the full spreadsheet of findings and formulas to this email for your reference.
 
If you have any questions about this, please feel free to ask.
 
Thanks for all of your good work...and I hope 2GB can find a regular spot for you.
 
Regards,
Samuel

Download 2013 Temperatures

I recorded this editorial broadcast by 2UE and the follow up interview with Dr David Evans on 4 May 2011.  I found it useful to listen again.   It's very hard for a person to hold a belief when his income is dependent on it not being so.

http://web.archive.org/web/20110506073236/http://www.2ue.com.au/blogs/2ue-blog/staying-on-song-for-climate-change/20110504-1e7gc.html



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