While the cat's away..
I'm back and ready to watch The Suspect call in The Removalists

'Budget black hole' vs 'fall in tax revenue'


Everyone's covering it today.

Business Spectator  - ‎1 hour ago‎
The West Australian  - ‎2 hours ago‎

If we have a look at the wording of each headline you get a sense of what story leans in what direction.

I think it's important to note that this fall in revenue isn't a fall when compared to last year. Revenue is up on last year. The decrease is based upon the forecast.

I've been in the corporate world and held responsibility for multi million dollar contracts. I too had to provide forecasts to senior executives to be passed to the board, ASIC and shareholders.

There was always hell to pay when you were wrong but you avoided being wrong through good financial and operational management. If this was replicated in the private sector there'd be one CEO and one CFO living on the Newstart Allowance.

Putting the management hat on briefly I have 2 questions:

Question 1 is 'who provides the forecast?'.  I assume it's a Treasury Department which is staffed by  impartial Public Servants, fair enough.

Question 2 is 'who provides the assumptions and policy for the forecasts?'. This question will no doubt lead us up the hill to the current cabinet room, and that is precisely where the buck should stop.

No doubt our more experienced financial readers have calculators and pens poised for analysis and I'm looking forward to reading them!