• Malcolm Turnbull’s centrepiece energy policy will help lift renewable energy production to 36 per cent of the nation’s total generation capacity within 11 years, up from a current 17 per cent, according to new Energy Security Board modelling.

Australia’s reliance on coal will fall from the current 75 per cent of generation capacity to a forecast 60 per cent over the same period, with the modelling predicting no new coal-fired power stations but no unscheduled closures.

The modelling is contained in the ESB’s final detailed design of the National Energy Guarantee, presented to the state and territories today ahead of a crucial August 10 meeting that could make or break the Turnbull government’s plan to end the nation’s decade-long energy wars.

In a letter to the nation’s energy ministers attached to the report, ESB chair Kerry Schott said failing to agree to the NEG design would result in higher energy prices for households.

“Stakeholders have been clear with the Energy Security Board that the status quo is simply not acceptable and have demonstrated a commitment to work together to respond to the changes that are underway in the energy market,” Dr Schott said.

“Any delay, or worse a failure to reach agreement, will simply prolong the current investment uncertainty and deny customers more affordable energy.”

In a pitch to wavering Labor states, Dr Schott said the NEG mechanism “can accommodate different levels of emissions ambition over time”, and would complement state and territory emission targets “to create greater confidence for the industry”.