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Current NSW Senate position two weeks after the election

This election NSW will send 6 Senators to Canberra.

About 4.3M votes were cast in the state.

The quota for a Senate seat is about 587,000 votes (includes provision for informal votes).

Here is the current position for the Liberal/National ticket.

Screen Shot 2019-05-31 at 9.58.41 am

The bottom number is the first one to look at.

1.58M 1st preference votes went to the LNP.   The top line shows that of that 786K have been allocated to "the ticket" (ie a 1 above the line) The second bottom line shows that 764K are yet to be apportioned - ie they're still being counted/scrutineered.

Jim Molan currently has 30.7K 1st preference votes in his pile - that's .052 of the quota required to be elected.  Only those in the counting room will have any idea how many possible Molan votes remain in the 764K yet to be apportioned.

We then turn to the preference flows from groups/individuals who won't have a quota in their own right.

It's highly likely the six senators will come from Labor and the LNP teams.

You can do your own guesstimates on likely preference flows once The Greens, PHON, Palmer's United etc are taken into account.


Groups' provisional quota
Group Provisional quota
Liberal/Nationals 2.7052
Labor/Country Labor 2.1095
The Greens 0.6043
Pauline Hanson's One Nation 0.3471
Australian Conservatives 0.0341
Liberal Democrats (LDP) 0.1284
United Australia Party 0.1022
Affordable Housing Party 0.0262
Animal Justice Party 0.0714
Australian Better Families 0.0107
Australian Democrats 0.0125
Australian People's Party 0.0196
Australian Workers Party 0.0111
Christian Democratic Party 0.1128
Citizens Electoral Council 0.0024
DLP - Democratic Labour Party 0.0380
HEMP 0.1443
Health Australia Party 0.0337
Independents For Climate Action 0.0396
Involuntary Medication Objectors (Vaccination/Fluoride) Party 0.0076
Climate Action! Immigration Action! Accountable Politicians! 0.0095
Pirate Party 0.0249
Rise Up Australia Party 0.0470
Science Party 0.0273
Seniors United Party of Australia 0.0102
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 0.1799
Socialist Alliance 0.0088
Socialist Equality Party 0.0030
Sustainable Australia 0.0292
The Great Australian Party 0.0116
The Small Business Party 0.0204
The Together Party 0.0087
The Women's Party 0.0239
Unendorsed/Ungrouped Amalgamated 0.0032