This election NSW will send 6 Senators to Canberra.
About 4.3M votes were cast in the state.
The quota for a Senate seat is about 587,000 votes (includes provision for informal votes).
Here is the current position for the Liberal/National ticket.
The bottom number is the first one to look at.
1.58M 1st preference votes went to the LNP. The top line shows that of that 786K have been allocated to "the ticket" (ie a 1 above the line) The second bottom line shows that 764K are yet to be apportioned - ie they're still being counted/scrutineered.
Jim Molan currently has 30.7K 1st preference votes in his pile - that's .052 of the quota required to be elected. Only those in the counting room will have any idea how many possible Molan votes remain in the 764K yet to be apportioned.
We then turn to the preference flows from groups/individuals who won't have a quota in their own right.
It's highly likely the six senators will come from Labor and the LNP teams.
You can do your own guesstimates on likely preference flows once The Greens, PHON, Palmer's United etc are taken into account.
|Pauline Hanson's One Nation||0.3471|
|FRASER ANNING'S CONSERVATIVE NATIONAL PARTY||0.0263|
|Liberal Democrats (LDP)||0.1284|
|United Australia Party||0.1022|
|Affordable Housing Party||0.0262|
|Animal Justice Party||0.0714|
|Australian Better Families||0.0107|
|Australian People's Party||0.0196|
|Australian Workers Party||0.0111|
|Christian Democratic Party||0.1128|
|Citizens Electoral Council||0.0024|
|DLP - Democratic Labour Party||0.0380|
|Health Australia Party||0.0337|
|Independents For Climate Action||0.0396|
|Involuntary Medication Objectors (Vaccination/Fluoride) Party||0.0076|
|Climate Action! Immigration Action! Accountable Politicians!||0.0095|
|Rise Up Australia Party||0.0470|
|Seniors United Party of Australia||0.0102|
|Shooters, Fishers and Farmers||0.1799|
|Socialist Equality Party||0.0030|
|The Great Australian Party||0.0116|
|The Small Business Party||0.0204|
|The Together Party||0.0087|
|The Women's Party||0.0239|
Vote done! Just voted at Jerrabomberra Public School, where I chatted to plenty of locals doing their democratic duty. Thanks to @AusElectoralCom officials for their hard work. Don’t forget you have til 6pm to vote - find a booth at https://t.co/flOmE4KYuW. #ausvotes19 pic.twitter.com/4iVIGM6duC— Senator Jim Molan (@JimMolan) May 18, 2019