Jim Molan has smashed records for the most votes for a single candidate in the history of Australian elections.

As at 10AM today Jim's at 132,265 first preference, below the line votes.

Each state in the Commonwealth will return 6 Senators this election.

The arithmetic for a "quota" is - the total number of formal votes in each state, divided by 6.

So for NSW a "quota" is 666K (few conspiracy theories there!) and Jim is currently at 132K or 20% of a quota.

The current quotas for the smaller states/territories:

NT - 35,010 (Jim would get approx 4-5 Senate Seats in his own right)

ACT - 90,078

TAS - 50,285 

SA - 156,381

So what next?

The AEC is yet to complete the allocation of 1st preferences, let alone any distribution of 2nd, 3rd and other preferences.

While those preferences within each ticket are yet to be distributed, we do know the overall position. Below I've taken a stab at what I reckon are logical preference flow groupings - here's my summary.

First preferences likely to end up on the LNP ticket (expressed as quotas)

LNP 2.7

Shooters .17

Aust Conservatives .03

Fraser Anning .02

Fred Nile .11

Lib Dem .13

PHON .34

Clive Palmer .1

TOTAL - about 3.6 Senate quotas

First preferences Labor

Labor 2.08

DLP .03

TOTAL - about 2.11 Senators

First preferences Greens

Greens .6

Hemp Party .14

TOTAL - about .74 Senators

These are very very rough figures - but it appears to be more likely than not that the 4th position on the LNP ticket (ie Jim Molan) will get knocked out with about .6 of a quota - pipped at the first preference post by The Greens Mehreen Faruqi who's likely to get about .74.

(NB - That's a pessimistic view based on back of the envelope workings.  There's a chance Jim will be bumped up as "below-the-line" votes from Aust Conservatives, PHON and others which favour Jim and not the LNP are distributed - bottom line is the votes are yet to be counted!!!!!!)

Now is that clear as mud?  I hope so, because down and dirty, right in the stinking, rotten, filthy, slimy, rank mud is where the NSW Liberals work out their selfish factional crony deals.

So instead of this...

....Australia ends up with the chequered-historied chinless-wonder Andrew Bragg, pictured here cuddling up with fellow gay-marriage campaigner and factional Photios hack Trent Zimmerman.

And to add insult to injury we're facing more lectures about how bloody awful we are from Mehreen!

ENDS

PS Here's Bragging Mr Bragg so cocksure of himself he declared himself elected to the Senate more than a fortnight ago.