One of these states is not like the others, one of these state leaders just doesn't belong.
Ivanka Trump's golf swing. In heels. NAGAs like me watch and weep.

Reader MudCrab with some telling statistical analysis from www.covid19data.com.au

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Okay - for those playing at home here is a little exercise with the data.

First goto https://www.covid19data.com.au/

Scroll around until you find the graph 'Testing'. Filter this for Victoria.

This shows 'cases' (whatever they are these days) and total tests since March.

Now at the bottom left there is a little 'Download Data' icon. Click that and you should have the raw numbers in an excel file.

Make a new column and divide cases/tests * 100 to get the percentage. Then use the Insert Tab in excel to display the percentage column as a line graph.

What you should see is a peak at the start (March) that falls away to basically nothing before slow climbing from late June till now.

So... What are we looking at?

First thing to notice is the graph never gets above 4% and only the last few days has recrossed the 2% mark. WHO - when they are not gushing over Lady GaGa - suggest that if your area is below 5% for seven days running then it is 'safe' to reopen.

Second thing to notice is that while the media seems to think it is the end of the world, the graph doesn't. Remember this is MEANT to be a massive outbreak, spreading in an uncontrolled fashion and doing hideous damage.

Ummm… no. Remember, this is not random testing. This is tested TARGETTED at areas believed to be at risk, so once the cases started to come in (at less than 1% for most of July) you could assume that the testing would be even more focused on the 'high risk' and the 'hotspots'. If anything we SHOULD be seeing a significant increase in positive tests BUT WE ARE NOT.

And this is the major point. We are being constantly told things like '321 New Cases Overnight! DOOM!' but we are not being told of the 20,000+ each day that are being confirmed as negative.

Are there cases? Yes.

Is it spreading uncontrolled? No. If it was uncontrolled we would be starting to see a much higher positive test ratio.

Also remember that someone dies in Australia every 3 and a bit minutes. Death is real, but in perspective the road toll is 10 times higher than WuFlu. While no one wants to hear someone they know has died on the roads, we still allow ourselves to drive on them.

As Far As Is Reasonably Practical exists for a reason. Dan doesn't.

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